Chargers Mock Draft 3.0: What happens if a top tackle falls to No. 17? (2024)

Welcome to your Chargers Mock Draft 3.0.

In our first two mock drafts so far this offseason, we looked into two different first-round scenarios. In early March, we had the Chargers taking Georgia defensive lineman Jordan Davis at No. 17 — before the team signed defensive linemen Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson to starter-level contracts in free agency. And earlier this month, we had the Chargers drafting Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave.

One mock-draft scenario we have not dug into yet: What happens if one of the top four tackles falls to the Chargers?

That will be the focus of this version.

The draft is just more than a week away. The wait is almost over. It is time to get …

TO THE MOCK!

Round 1, Pick 17: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

The Chargers have flexibility in how they address their offensive line needs in the draft, as I have written regularly over the past month or so. The team is more open to moving Matt Feiler to right tackle in 2022 than they were last season. Feiler played well at right tackle for the Steelers in 2018 and 2019 before shifting inside to left guard in 2020. The Chargers had a hole at right tackle last season once Bryan Bulaga went down in Week 1. But they wanted to give rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater — who had not played a competitive game since 2019 — the best chance to succeed. That meant keeping Feiler, an established player, at left guard to help Slater’s transition and development.

Now, though, Slater has proven to be an elite all-around left tackle. Moving Feiler to right tackle as an upgrade over Storm Norton — and filling that starting left guard spot in the draft or by re-signing Oday Aboushi — is a more palatable option. But it is not the best option.

The best option is a tackle falling to the Chargers at 17 and keeping Feiler at left guard.

I still think the top four tackles — North Carolina State’s Ikem Ekwonu, Alabama’s Evan Neal, Mississippi State’s Charles Cross and Penning — are off the board by the time the Chargers pick, considering positional value and recent draft history. The 2020 draft is an interesting comparison. That year, our draft expert Dane Brugler had four tackles ranked in his top 16 overall prospects: Alabama’s Jedrick Wills (No. 5), Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs (No. 8), Louisville’s Mekhi Becton (No. 11) and Georgia’s Andrew Thomas (No. 15). All four were gone by the 13th pick.

This year, Brugler also has four tackles in his top 16. Ekwonu is No. 2, Neal is No. 3, Cross is No. 7 and Penning is No. 16.

At the same time, projecting the draft is a nearly impossible task, despite our best efforts. Only a few of even the most accurate mock drafters had Slater falling to No. 13 last year. So while unlikely, a tackle being there for the Chargers at 17 is still on the table. And if a tackle is there, I think the Chargers will take him over any other position. Upgrading Justin Herbert’s protection on the right side must be a priority.

Penning is the most realistic option of the four. He checks every box from a measurable standpoint. He is over 6-foot-7, weighed in at 333 pounds at his pro day, has 34 1/4-inch arms and put up impressive testing numbers. According to MockDraftable, among all offensive linemen in the database, Penning’s three-cone drill was in the 98th percentile, his 40-yard dash was in the 97th percentile, his 10-yard split was in the 93rd percentile and his broad jump was in the 89th percentile.

From Brugler: “Penning is an athletic mover (fastest 10-yard and 20-yard splits among linemen at the combine) with the long arms and nasty attitude that consistently bail him out of trouble. His pass-set angles are inconsistent and he must do a better job with his lower-body bend and handwork to win the leverage game. Overall, Penning’s fundamentals and on-field discipline need to be coached up, but he has an impressive blend of size, length, fluidity and power along with the physical presence to dominate the man in front of him.”

An offensive line of Slater at left tackle, Feiler at left guard, Corey Linsley at center, Aboushi or Brenden Jaimes at right guard and Penning at right tackle would put the Chargers in great position heading into training camp.

Round 3, Pick 79: Josh Paschal, edge rusher, Kentucky

Offensive line is the most pressing need the Chargers have on their roster, and addressing it in the first round would open up their draft considerably. If they go with another position at 17like wide receiver or cornerback, then offensive line — in all likelihood guard — becomes an absolute must at 79, because they need a starting-caliber player. This is where dealing the second-rounder for Khalil Mack will hurt them slightly.

With the offensive line sorted, though, the Chargers can start hunting for value, particularly at positions where they lack depth. Mack and Joey Bosa will form a fierce edge-rushing duo in Brandon Staley’s defense this season as long as both players can stay healthy. But the Chargers need more behind them. Chris Rumph is the third edge rusher right now. Other players on the depth chart include Jamal Davis II and Emeke Egbule, who both signed futures contracts earlier this offseason.

I considered both Miami (Ohio)’s Dominique Robinson and Western Kentucky’s DeAngelo Malone at this spot, but, as Brugler wrote in his draft guide, they have some question marks in run defense, a weakness for the Chargers in 2021. I settled on the more polished, pro-ready player in Paschal, who, like Staley, is a cancer survivor.

From Brugler: “Paschal is a smart, technically sound defender with the body type and balanced athleticism to shut down the run. He has the physical hands and quickness to defeat blockers as a pass rusher, but he struggles to bend the corner or win at the top of his rush. Overall, Paschal isn’t a dynamic or sophisticated pass rusher, but he is polished vs. the run with the point-of-attack instincts and football character that will be welcomed in an NFL building.”

Round 4, Pick 123: Danny Gray, WR, SMU

The Chargers had a top-five offense last season, but the one element they were lacking was speed at receiver. Jalen Guyton is the only receiver on the roster who can threaten defenses over the top with straight-line speed. Of course, there could be some tantalizing options in the first round, like Olave or Jameson Williams. But if the Chargers go with a tackle at 17, they should look to add that speed later in the draft.

I considered the third round. Memphis’ Calvin Austin is an intriguing prospect at 79. But ultimately I felt like the Chargers could get more value by going edge rusher in the third round and receiver in the fourth.

Gray ran a 4.33 40-yard dash and logged the fastest top speed at the Senior Bowl at over 22 miles per hour. And he showed explosiveness on tape in different ways. He can beat corners over the top with his speed. But he also has some impressive after-the-catch burst.

Gray might need some time time to refine his game, and he is a little undersized for an outside receiver. But the beauty of the Chargers as a landing spot is they do not need him to be an every-down player right away because of all the talented pass-catchers they have, including Joshua Palmer, last year’s third-round pick.

From Brugler: “A light-footed athlete, Gray can fly before and after the catch, and his targets on tape were evenly distributed to every level of the field. He does a great job with his over-the-shoulder tracking, but his lackluster finishing skills will draw groans from the quarterback and fans. Overall, Gray requires more polish with his routes and drops, but with his field speed and playmaking potential, he is just scratching the surface of his ability. He has skills to develop into a weapon as a team’s WR3.”

Round 5, Pick 160: Otito Ogbonnia, DL, UCLA

By signing Joseph-Day and Johnson in free agency, the Chargers did a fine job of remaking the interior defensive line in one offseason with players who better fit Staley’s scheme. But it still feels like they are a player away from having a requisite depth. Jerry Tillery would be best served in a rotational pass-rushing role. Right now, he is penciled in as a starter in base packages, effectively the same role on the depth chart he was in last season.

Ogbonnia has the type of size and length Staley covets on the interior with a 6-foot-4, 324-pound frame and 34 1/4-inch arms. He was an accomplished shot put thrower both in high school and early in his tenure at UCLA, and the skills necessary for shot put and discus throwing often translate well to trench play in the NFL. J.J. Watt, Joe Thomas, Brandon Scherff, Lane Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Trent Williams and Russell Okung are some examples.

The Chargers reportedly met with Ogbonnia last week. And he seems like a great fit in Staley’s defense because of his ability to eat up double-teams up front.

From Brugler: “Ogbonnia flashes explosive strike skills to walk back and bench press blockers off his frame, but his lateral movements and rush moves are non-threatening. In the run game, he needs to strengthen his anchor and improve his pad level to be more consistent leveraging gaps and making plays. Overall, Ogbonnia moves heavy and he is still raw as a two-gapper and pass rusher, but his package of traits (size, length, heavy hands) are a nice starter kit for a developmental nose tackle.”

Round 6, Pick 195: Jerome Ford, RB, Cincinnati

The Chargers are almost certainly going to take a running back with one of their 10 picks. I would not rule out that happening in the third round, but the likelier option is the Chargers will look to add talent behind Austin Ekeler on Day 3. Ford began his career at Alabama before transferring to Cincinnati for the 2020 season. He only has one season of production, but it was a massive year. And the lack of mileage can actually be a good thing for running backs.

Ford rushed for 1,319 yards and 19 touchdowns to go along with 21 catches for 220 yards and a score in 2021, helping lead the Bearcats to the College Football Playoff. He performed well in the semifinal against the Crimson Tide, showing the requisite physicality to match up with Alabama’s talented defense. Staley always puts stock in how a player performs against elite competition. It was one of the reasons the Chargers were drawn to Palmer last season.

From Brugler: “Ford has the lateral footwork and body strength to keep plays alive, flashing the open-field juice to gash defenses (averaged 6.1 yards per carry in his career). However, his vision and patience lack consistency, and he needs to improve his ball security and blocking to maintain the trust of his coaches. Overall, Ford has room to improve his eyes and timing at the line of scrimmage to be more of a creator, but he has an effective blend of size, strength and speed with upside catching the football. He can provide a punch to an NFL team’s depth chart.”

Round 6, Pick 214: Kyron Johnson, LB, Kansas

Johnson is a bit of a tweener prospect. He played all over the field at Kansas, including as a defensive end last season. And he took snaps as an edge rusher at the Senior Bowl. But his frame — 6-foot, 231 pounds — projects him more as an off-ball linebacker, though his coverage skills are a concern. At this stage of the draft, the Chargers will be looking for potential difference-makers on special teams. And despite some questions over exact positional fit, Johnson has the skill set to make plays in kick and punt coverage. He is an elite athlete, running a 4.40 40-yard dash and jumping 10 feet in the broad jump. He played 604 special teams snaps over his college career.

From Brugler: “Whether he’s rushing the passer or playing in space, Johnson is explosive in his movements with a quick first step and the acceleration to close in a blink. Though he isn’t shy playing physical, he doesn’t have ideal size, length or power for steady trench work and can be inconsistent as an off-ball player. Overall, Johnson is undersized with concerns about his best position in the NFL, but you can’t coach his high-level speed and competitive fire. His impact on special teams can keep him on an active roster while his coaches figure out his best defensive fit.”

Round 7, Pick 236: Darrell Baker Jr., CB, Georgia Southern

Staley will never stop looking for corners. I had the Chargers going in other directions in the first six rounds, but with four seventh-round picks, taking a flyer on a traits corner makes a ton of sense. Baker is over 6 feet and ran a 4.41 40-yard dash. He also has experience playing gunner.

From Brugler: “Baker checks boxes with his height, length, speed and explosiveness, but his coverage anticipation and consistency in run support are subpar. He has a bad habit of losing his balance when peeking into the backfield and struggled vs. some of the better opponents on the schedule (two touchdowns allowed on the 2021 Arkansas tape). Overall, Baker is experienced in various coverages with top-tier athletic traits, but he lacks poise downfield and the key for him to carve out an NFL career will be his mental development. He projects best as a press-man corner and special teamer.”

Round 7, Pick 254: Nick Zakelj, OL, Fordham

Zakelj was a tackle in college but will make a move to the inside in the NFL. Staley loves big guards, and Zakelj provides that at 6-foot-6, 311 pounds — though he does have shorter arms.

From Brugler: “Zakelj grabbed the attention of NFL teams after his dominant performance vs. Nebraska in the 2021 season opener, although the rest of his senior year tape was very up and down. While he plays with quickness, he struggles to ride the bull and stay connected because of his leaning and inability to keep blocks centered post-contact. Overall, Zakelj moves well and competes with excellent awareness and finish, but he must become more consistent fundamentally to match up vs. NFL competition.”

Round 7, Pick 255: Leon O’Neal, S, Texas A&M

O’Neal (6-foot, 204 pounds) played 405 special teams snaps in his four seasons in College Station and also had quality ball production with 18 pass breakups and six interceptions. The Chargers need some competition at the back end of their safety depth chart in the mix with Alohi Gilman and Mark Webb.

From Brugler: “O’Neal went to the Jalen Ramsey school of trash talk (while also backing it up), and head coach Jimbo Fisher calls his energy ‘infectious.’ He needs to play with better anticipation and suddenness to all areas of his game, especially in man coverage, where it is too easy for route-runners to cross his face. Overall, O’Neal is a good-sized athlete and plays with NFL confidence, but the missed tackles are bothersome, and he lacks the coverage fluidity to hold up in space vs. receivers. His special teams experience will help him compete for a roster spot.”

Round 7, Pick 260: Luke Wattenberg, OC, Washington

Scott Quessenberry signed with the Texans in free agency, so the Chargers do not have a clear backup center on their roster. Jaimes started practicing snapping in the second half of last season, and he could be the answer to that hole if Linsley goes down at any point. But a player with some center experience would solidify the depth chart more. The Chargers prefer their backup centers to have some position flex. Quessenberry could play both guard and center. Wattenberg played guard, center and tackle in his college career and also has good size and length at 6-foot-4, 306 pounds with 34-inch arms.

From Brugler: “With his footwork and hips, Wattenberg is a smooth mover and trusts the timing and placement of his hands, but he routinely gives ground vs. bull rushers because of his tall pads and faulty anchor. Although he can leverage lanes as a run blocker, his average play strength isn’t ideal. Overall, Wattenberg will struggle vs. point-of-attack power, but he plays quick and rugged with the guard-center experience that could help land him on a roster.”

(Photo of Trevor Penning: Charlie Neibergall / Associated Press)